frost2014

First meeting of potential participants of research and forecasting project associated with «Sochi-2014» Olympic and Paralympic Games (hereinafter referred to as «Games») was held in Sochi on 1-3 March 2011. About 40 participants from Austria, Canada, China, Finland, Germany, Italy, Russia, the United States, and the WMO Secretariat took part in the meeting.

List of participants is presented in Annex 1.

An outline of the meeting events and summary of its outcomes is as follows.

1 March, 2011
Morning session was chaired by Dmitry Kiktev. He suggested starting the meeting with brief introductions by participants. After the introductions the proposed provisional agenda was adopted (Adopted Agenda – Annex 2).

Welcome and Introductions from the WMO
Slobodan Nickovic welcomed the participants on behalf of the WMO Secretariat and presented overview information on the WMO WWRP activities in support of nowcasting and mesoscale modeling development.

Welcome and Introductions from Roshydromet
Dmitry Kiktev welcomed the participants on behalf of Roshydromet and presented information on Roshydromet plans for meteorological support of «Sochi-2014» Games.

Yuri Melinichuk presented Roshydromet plans for upgrade of radar facilities in the region of Sochi. New Vaisala Doppler radar will be installed on Akhun mountain in Sochi in 2011. New-generation Russian Dopplers are expected to become available reasonably well in advance of the Games replacing the existing 5 radars in the region. Technical characteristics of these new Dopplers seem to be very much comparable with, e.g. Vaisala radars.

Detlev Majewski presented COSMO Activities for «Sochi-2014» Games: deterministic COSMO model version with 2.2 km grid spacing; probabilistic ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS with 7 km spacing; postprocessing for products generation and verification system.

Andrea Montani reported on the COSMO-LEPS ensemble prediction system (including its performance characteristics) and outlined the prospects of its use for the Sochi project.

Paul Joe presented activity of his Working Group on Nowcasting Research in the framework of WWRP. Usage of radars (including vertically pointing radars) for precipitation measurement (especially in winter conditions) and blending nowcasting techniques were discussed in the presentation.

First afternoon session was chaired by Detlev Majewski. The session was devoted to potential participant contributions to «Sochi-2014» project.

Stephane Belair reported on potential contribution of Environment Canada to «Sochi-2014» project together with perspectives from the WWRP’s Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research. He outlined the Canadian meso-scale NWP system based on 15-km data assimilation and further downscaling to 2.5 and 1 km. Resolutions within 250-500 m can be expected by 2014. He also mentioned the role of downscaling in very-short-range prediction of winter weather.

Pertti Nurmi presented initial ideas for verification of forecasts for «Sochi-2014» project. Both user-oriented and research-oriented verifications were expected to be needed for Sochi Games. Potentially the scope of relevant verification approaches is very broad – from «standard» verifications to spatial verifications including ones applicable for remotely sensed data, verifications for timing of events (onset, duration etc.), verifications with account of observations uncertainty etc. Interest of FMI in expansion of Sochi project towards road weather forecasting was mentioned.

Yong Wang reported on the possibility of using products produced by ZAMG for the Sochi-2014 project purposes. The ALADIN based LAEF 18-km (10.9 km possible) EPS can be used for the Sochi region after some extension of the model domain to the East. AROME-Austria-2.5 km can be used for deterministic forecasting as well. The INCA nowcasting system was briefly described.

George Isaac discussed possible contributions of Environment Canada to the Sochi project. In particular, he mentioned parameterizations of visibility, wind gust, and precipitation type for model simulations. From the Vancouver-2010 experience, prediction of relative humidity, wind direction, wind gusts, precipitation type, and visibility in winter conditions over the mountainous terrain appears to be a challenge.

The second afternoon session was chaired by Stephane Belair. The session was devoted to potential participant contributions to «Sochi-2014» project. Potential contributions to «Sochi-2014» project – continued
Jian Sun presented the operational CMA NWP system GRAPES and its applicability for the Soch-2014 purposes. The system uses a unified global/regional forecast model and a 3D/4D-Var data assimilation component.

Dmitri Moisseev presented the Vaisala’s dual-polarization Doppler radar and its performance in winter conditions. A case study of an extreme winter-weather event in Finland was outlined.

Tiziana Paccagnella presented activities within THORPEX TIGGE and, in particular, its TIGGE-LAM component in the context of the Sochi project. She mentioned the possibility to ask THORPEX IPO to provide a (near) real-time access to TIGGE fields for the purposes of the Sochi project. The GIFS/TIGGE WG can also ask the TIGGE data providers to make available further products of interest for Sochi FDP and RDP. She also mentioned Sochi-focused configuration (7 km resolution) of COSMO LEPS as a potential FDP-component of Sochi-2014 project. Convective-permitting EPS might be an RDP-component of TIGGE-LAM contribution to Sochi project.

Roy Rasmussen presented WSDDM (Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making) winter nowcasting system, which provided valuable information to Vancouver 2010 Olympic forecasters regarding storm motion, nowcasts of precipiation rate, type, and visibility. A similar system with web-based interface could be implemented for «Sochi-2014» Games.

Peter Romanov presented the NOAA’s global snow analysis system based on satellite (visible, infra-red, and micro-wave) observations. Resolution is 4 km (10 km when cloudy), once per day. By the Olympics, the resolution is expected to be increased to 1 km.

Nanette Lomarda informed the participants on activities of the WWRP Working Group on Societal and Economic Research Applications (SERA) and on the previous experience in assessment of societal and economic impacts for Olympics that would be needed for «Sochi-2014» Games.
Brief outline of COSMO-RU forecasting system was given by Gdaly Rivin.
All the meeting presentations are available via http://www.meteoinfo.ru/frost-kickoff-ppt or ftp://193.7.160.230/FROST-2014 ( Login/Pass: hmcmgo / kh35_! ). The second option might be preferable as some presentations are quite bulky. Besides of presentations avi-file with Sochi Google Earth tour prepared by Paul Joe is uploaded to the ftp-server.

March 2, 2011: Field excursion to Krasnaya Poliana, the region of future Olympic mountain cluster of sport venues was organized for the participants. They had a good opportunity to make sure that visibility and precipitation phase might be serious issues for «Sochi-2014» Games (see photo below).

March 3, 2011
The morning session on the project concept was chaired by George Isaac. He led discussions on the project goals, content, status and needs. The afternoon session on the project Implementation Plan and Project Management was chaired by Paul Joe. As there was considerable overlap between the morning and afternoon discussions their summary outcomes are presented below without following the chronological order of these discussions.
Discussion started with very basic questions:

In general it was agreed that the answer is «yes», although an expected budget cut in Roshydromet might be a serious limitation.
The participants indicated that potential for a good project was there considering the current state of the in-situ observations – that is, there are already some stations with basic meteorological observations and data was being collected at 5 minute intervals. However, either actual instruments and observations or the network enhancement plans need specification.

Yes, at this stage there are seven potential international participants. Besides of the Russian side there were potential participants from Austria (ZAMG), Canada (EC), China (CMA), Finland (University of Helsinki/FMI/Vaisala), Germany (DWD), Italy (ARPA-SIMC), USA (NCAR, NOAA), although some of them participated on behalf of international teams (COSMO and TIGGE-LAM) and WWRP Working Groups or acted as individual researchers, rather than represented their meteorological services. In whole that was considered to be a critical mass. Of course this is not a «closed club». It was mentioned that there might be some interest in this project in Switzerland, UK, Japan and Norway. ECMWF officially informed Roshydromet about its readiness to provide lateral boundary conditions for a WMO project associated with «Sochi-2014» Games. However, along with flexibility it is important to understand who is really going to participate in the project. Some kind of deadline is needed to know, who is really plan to participate. All the participated teams are kindly invited to consider the meeting outcomes and formally inform the organizers on their decision. Preferably in April 2011.

George Isaac prepared the first guess of wording for the goals that was to some extent transformed in the course of discussion:
«What are the Goals for Sochi-2014?
• To improve/quantify/exploit
• To improve our understanding/physics of high impact weather phenomena/processes in winter complex terrain environment
• To deliver/demonstrate/verify the forecast products (probabilistic and deterministic) in real time to Olympic 2014 forecasters and decision makers».

Detlev Majewski expressed his doubts that project should concentrate only on high impact weather. High impact weather is not obviously the everyday matter. Why not provide the best possible forecast day by day?
Petti Nurmi noted that forecasting of close to 0° temperatures is really critical, especially for cross-country skiing, and maybe good temperature forecast is more important for this project. It is a high impact weather in some sense.
Nanette Lomarda reminded that WWRP is a program focused on high impacts and proposed not to lose the emphasis on high impact weather.
Roy Rasmussen mentioned that such a sound focus as high impact weather might be essential in the search of sources for project support.
Detlev Majewski prepared another version of wording for the project goals: «Significantly improve the forecast capability of meteorological conditions in complex terrain for the benefit of decision makers by combined FDPs and RDPs supported by the international meteorological community, especially by implanting, adopting and exploiting

Wong Wang asked Russian colleagues about their goals and expectations of the project. Dmitry Kiktev referred to his presentation from March 1 with initial version of wording for the project goal: «To enhance and demonstrate capabilities of modern systems of short-range NWP and nowcasting in winter conditions for mountain terrain and to assess effect of practical use of this information». That very general goal was split in the presentation into more specific subgoals. In whole, nowcasting and fine-scale NWP are considered to be the primary needs and a major gap and the project would be helpful for enhancement of existing forecasting capabilities.
The compiled version was prepared on the basis of several proposals:
Goals of «Sochi-2014» project


Deterministic NWP
NWP is considered to be a backbone of the project.

In 2007 Roshydromet joined COSMO. COSMO is expected to be the basic mesoscale NWP model of Roshydromet for Sochi Games. Different views were expressed on the maximal resolution of deterministic forecasts achievable by the Sochi Olympics. Basing on SNOW-V10 experience Stephane Belair, George Isaac, Roy Rasmussen and others believed that in research mode resolutions down to 200-500 m can be tested. Detlev Majewski argued that in summer conditions the present version of COSMO-1km exhibited poor results and 1-km COSMO has never been tested in winter in operational mode.

In general, there was near agreement that in forecast demonstration mode in the «Sochi-2014» project deterministic forecasts should have a threshold resolutions of about 2-2.5 km or finer, whereas in research mode, target resolutions should be 1 km or less. The latter implies «no firm commitment» (The same happened in Vancouver but the 1-km model was available well in advance).

The list of models potentially available for an implementation and evaluation with 1 km or finer resolution in research mode includes:
The groups that wish to go beyond this baseline in terms of resolution will be able to do so (EC and CMA has expressed their interest for running 200-500 m grid size deterministic models).

It was noted that development and testing of physical parameterizations should be a part of the project. Tests of parameterizations for visibility, wind gusts, precipitation type and snow density were mentioned along with improvement of formulation of boundary layer and shallow convection were mentioned by George Isaac and Tiziana Paccagnella. Roy Rasmussen mentioned an issue of embedded convection. It was proposed to demonstrate the use of „off line“ models which can provide high resolution, more sophisticated and detailed predictions.

Discussion: There are many scientific questions that could be addressed by this deterministic component of the project, e.g., what is the impact of horizontal resolution / physical processes on the forecast of high-impact weather over this region? Use of time and space variability from sub-km scale model for certain variables like visibility and wind gusts? Impact of high-resolution data assimilation for winter weather? Impact of better surface-atmosphere coupling? Any significant contribution of numerical model to nowcast prediction, with or without data assimilation?

Ensemble NWP
The participants decided that the project should have an EPS component. It was also agreed that EPSs with resolution about 7 km or coarser (COSMO SOCHMEL and ALADIN LAEF) could be involved in the project in forecast and demonstration mode, while EPSs with resolution about 2 km (COSMO and AROME EPSs) would contribute to the project in research mode.

Scientific questions of interest would be the evaluation of the usefulness of coarse EPSs to provide uncertainty information for prediction of weather elements at the venues (point forecasts, which typically requires much higher horizontal resolution) compared to 1-km or less deterministic models, and the calibration / configuration of LAM-EPS in the context of high-impact weather in mountains.

Andrea Montani and Michael Tsyrulnikov noted that forecasters do not like probabilities (at any scale), while end-users “hate” probabilities. So, training is critically needed to benefit from EPS products. This need is deepened by the quite modest current experience of Roshydromet in ensemble forecasting.

Data assimilation
As was suggested by the WWRP Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research, a simple downscaling from relatively low-resolution regional data assimilation systems will be the baseline. For example, for COSMO-RU assimilation is to be run at resolution about 7 km with downscaling to 2 or 1 km. But again the institutions that wish to go beyond that and assimilate observations from the Sochi-2014 network (e.g., radar winds, profilers) into their km-scale models may do so (e.g., COSMO and GRAPES).

List of input data that were considered to be perspective for assimilation in Sochi project includes:

Discussion: Assimilation of radar reflectivity was expected to be not too efficient.
Detlev Majewski noted that the effect of such an assimilation in winter season might be quite low.
Gdaly Rivin reminded that in DWD assimilation of radar reflectivities using the latent heat nudging demonstrated positive effect for COSMO at 2.8-km grid resolution.
Michail Tsyrulnikov responded that the Hydrometcentre of Russia can adapt the latent heat nudging. However, reflectivity corrections typically have quite short-living effect. In this respect assimilation of radial winds is believed to be preferable. Latent heat nudging is local, it doesn’t change the environment. Radar radial winds do change the environment in a variational assimilation scheme. That is why assimilation of radial winds on high-resolution grids (1-2 km) winds might be a part of research component of the project.
Dmitry Kiktev noted, that for Sochi region, assimilation of radar data shoudl give positive effect only for a very short forecast range because of movement of air masses and little coverage of this territory with radar observations. Rapid update cycle is needed to exploit these potential benefits. In this regard, assimilation of satellite winds (AMV and ASCAT) and radiances over vast areas of the Black Sea look very important as it might be sensible for 1 day and longer.

Nowcasting and Observations
Nowcasting potential of participating NWP models (COSMO, GRAPES, AROME, GEM, …) is to be assessed in research mode. The role of radar data assimilation in this context is of particular interest. Today various versions of radar data assimilation are implemented in COSMO and GRAPES systems.

Besides of the meso-scale models, the following specialized nowcasting systems are proposed to be used in the project:

Dmitry Kiktev noted that existing nowcasting experience in Roshydromet is very limited.
Paul Joe expressed his view that it might be a legacy of the project. He considered the project to be an opportunity to develop mesoscale NWP to close the gap in 4-6 hour and, possibly, up to 12 hour range. Many research issues to tackle were mentioned:

Paul Joe asked the participants if the nowcasting systems can be ready for use next winter?
Yong Wang answered that INCA system can be presented, but there were some perceived doubts on readiness of the observational network and infrastructure (surface observations, radars, telecommunications etc). Telecommunications was considered the critical element since the observations (in-situ observations, radar) are planned to be available in 2011-2012.
Valery Lukyanov replied that enhancement of already installed automatic stations with expanded set of sensors would be completed by September 2011. The rest of the stations will be installed after the sport venues construction. In general, the basic equipment installation has to be completed by September 2012.

An appropriate observational set-up is of utmost importance for this project component. Roshydromet plans to provide the project partners with additional in-situ observations not normally available on the GTS.

Basing on Vancouver-2010 experience the following observational data needs were identified by George Isaac:

Valery Lukyanov informed the participants that general organizational set-up in «Sochi-2014» Games is quite different from other countries. The Olympic Organizing Committee doesn’t provide any financial support for «Sochi-2014» meteorological services. Roshydromet is in charge of the general organization of meteorological support of the Olympics. However, financing of this activity is quite complicated and splitted between several programs. In 2009-2010 18 AMS were installed in the region by Roshydromet (It is planned to enhance these stations with additional sensors). 17 additional AMS in the area of sport venues will be installed on account of investors. New Doppler radars will be installed at Akhun mountain and several nearby airports. Wind and temperature profilers will supplement the network. The nearest upper air sounding point is 100 km away from Olympic sport venues. Additional more frequent radiosonde and SYNOP observations should be transmitted via GTS. Observations from automated weather stations and radars should be available to the project participants in real time with minimal delays. AMDAR observations should be available, but, probably, only from non-Russian airliners. As far as possible Roshydromet will take into account the comments and recommendations of this kick-off meeting.
George Isaac replied that the resources of the community involved should be discussed, not only Russian. Several participants expressed their readiness to lend additional observational equipment for the project. George Isaac pointed out that Environment Canada could lend the following observing systems for the purposes of the project: one verticall pointing radar (MRR), gondeSonde, snow density gaugues, POSS particle disdrometers and possibly one micro-wave radiometer, one heated anemometer and visibility sensors.
Roy Rasmussen proposed the provision of various instruments by NCAR. He stressed that resolving potential problems with shipping, customs and so on might be crucial.
Dmitry Moisseev offered to provide a Doppler cloud radar (high frequency), but only for the Games period and not one year in advance. He mentioned that next year it will be clearer, which equipment could be brought. He also raised the issue of local infrastructure that is needed for this equipment.
The participants were asked to identify which instruments would be available and when. Prices of each unit are also needed. Today’s rough estimate of logistics expenses is 1/3 (in some cases up to 1/2) of a unit price. Time is needed to (hopefully) find this money. Decision on a specific location, electricity, human supervision and telecommunication links also imply time and multiple negotiations. As early as possible specification of these details increases chances to have this equipment for the project.

Andrea Montani and Yong Wang noted that role of IT-support should not be underestimated. Unification, optimization and Integration of data flows from multiple systems, timely issue and delivery of information in real time and later, efficient means of information presentation to users and forecasters are crucial for the project success.

Dmitry Kiktev informed the participants that Roshydromet plans to organize a data storage with Internet access for the project participants. In SNOW-V10 total amount of collected data (both observations and model outputs) was about 11 Tbytes. The similar data capacity can be feasible for «Sochi-2014» project.

George Isaac mentioned the need to have 1-minute resolution observational time series.
Dmitry Kiktev noted that 1-minute time interval might be too serious load for operational data transfer. Logistics of data flows need to be scrutinized. It might be needed to divide all data flows onto operational and off-line ones with data accumulation.
He mentioned another example of a potential communication issue. ECMWF expressed its readiness to provide unified boundary conditions for potential WWRP project associated with «Sochi-2014» Games. It seems optimal (if participants decide that there is such a need) to download this data directly from ECMWF without intermediate transfer of this information to the data storage in Roshydromet. It would mean that potentially multiple data sources are possible in «Sochi-2014» data logistics.

New graphical tools for forecasters were mentioned to be a serious issue. The existing systems in Roshydromet are not comprehensive enough given the high Olympic demands. Roshydromet will search for opportunities to fix this gap. The web site used for Snow-V10 was offered as a possible or interim solution.

Training and understanding
Based on Vancouver-2010 experience George Isaac, Paul Joe and Roy Rasmussen proposed organization of Research Support Desk (RSD) at pre-trial, final trial, pre-Olympics, Olympics phases (see «Implementation Plan») to help both to Olympic forecasters and researchers. They noted that researchers and forecasters should also work together at the venues particularly in the pre-Olympic phases to understand the local effects of the weather in the complex terrain. Many new products, instruments and observational environment, which are not possible to explain in a lecture nor fully understood before-hand, are expected to appear. The product developer is needed to help forecasters. On the other hand, it is important for researcher to see the real situation at site. Interaction with forecasters accelerates the development of involved systems. Concerns in this respect are language and budget.

Many the participants (both researchers and forecasters) noted that time and experience is needed to get used to new products and technologies. However, it was noted that in Vancouver the technologies had been evolving up to the winter 2009/2010.


Verification and Impact Assessments
Identification of goals, users, available forecast products and verification variables is a pre-requisite for in-detail verification planning. Possibly both user-oriented (with account of thresholds for decision making) and research-oriented (verification of nowcasts and NWPs) verification approaches should be taken (like in SNOW-V10).

Paul Joe mentioned the importance of early identification of target users and early start of social impacts assessments. It could/should start now to get the before and after picture of the impact of training, forecasting without nowcast observations such as dual-pol radar, then assessments after mountain meteorology trainings, installation of observations, installation of nowcast systems, etc. Forecasters themselves and., venue managers might be considered as specific users. In this respect it would be desirable to capture the evolution of forecasters needs. Year by year interviewing of forecasters would help to understand how forecast is changing. For example, how understanding of weather processes (conceptual models) or use of EPS products evolve.

Other issues

George Isaac and Pertti Nurmi raised the issue of possibility to expand the project into road forecasting.
Dmitry Kiktev answered that it could be a useful extention. However, from organizational point of view it is hardly feasible as Roshydromet is not an owner of road stations. These stations could enhance the observational network in the region, but it would imply involvement of other bodies from outside of Roshydromet. It is impossible to deal with everything. Given the existing resources a more focused and manageable project is preferable.

Different opinions were expressed on the project status (RDP vs FDP vs RDP/FDP).
In George Isaac’s view the project is more RDP than FDP and probably it might be a blended RDP/FDP but with an RDP emphasis.
Dmitry Kiktev answered that the FDP component is very important for Roshydromet.
Nanette Lomarda reminded that for FDP three criteria have to be met:
RDP is aimed at development of science. In her opinion the participants are not ready for FDP as the existing systems are not mature enough to demonstrate good forecasts for complex terrain.
Paul Joe noted that probably we were getting closer to FDP. In Vancouver-2010 real forecasting systems were running. They exist and can be adapted for Sochi. There are other existing NWP systems with coarser resolution that could contribute to the project FDP-component.
George Isaac noted that in Vancover-2010 forecasters were provided with SNOW-V10 products, but he doubted if it was efficient enough.
Slobodan Nickovic, Yong Wang and Dmitry Kiktev agreed that some project activities should be considered more an RDP rather than FDP type and this would be elucidated in the project proposal. Besides of understanding part and development of new tools (e.g. 1 km modeling), tests and demonstration of existing technologies (e.g. available nowcasting, 2 km deterministic and 7 km ensemble forecasting) is needed. For example, probabilistic forecasts could be used to train the decision makers.
Detlev Majewski stressed that whatever project set-up is, the products must reach local forecasters. In this sense, the project needs to be ‘end-to-end’.
Slobodan Nickovic suggested that it would be enough to leave the project status as RDP/FDP, not mentioning an RDP emphasis.
All the participants agreed that RDP/FDP would be an appropriate form for the project.

Implementation Plan
Schedule for Implementation includes:

As terminology, Paul Joe suggested that winter 2011-12 is the “pre-trial” period and winter of 2012-13 the “trial” period, so that all the technologies should be installed and tested during these two periods. “Pre-olympic” would be the period just before the Olympic games where final tuning is done. Data collected during the following winters will be used for high resolution WFS testing. The system will be revised and further tested. During the winter of 2013/14, the Olympic Winter, the formal evaluation of predictions will be made. A summary of what was learned and results of the project will be presented at the concluding WWRP RDP/FDP meeting after the Games. There will be considerable analysis and paper writing in the post-Olympic period with science workshops.

Year 2011-2012 - pre-trial potential
• Main objectives of this period:
• Model
• Social and economic assessments – important to start in Spring 2011
• Training
• Pre-trial Phase
• Scientific Steering Committee Meeting.

Year 2012-2013 final trial
• More instruments
• System Integration and Delivery System with timely access to data and timely product issue – forecast tables as a first guess to be ready
• Training
• RSD in the Final Trial
• Verification Package/Analysis based on
• Science Steering Committee meeting

Year 2013-2014 – Pre-Olympic Trial:
• Final Training;
• Additional measurements (GPM, Ka Band – RDP);
• Olympics.

Post-project activities:
• Science Steering Committee meeting;
• Report to WWRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC);
• Journal publications;
• Final Seminar.

Detlev Majewski expressed his concern about the project scheduling. He emphasize the point that it should be very specific. He classified the Development Areas as follows:
P1: Observations (AWS, Radar, Amdar, Radiosondes, …)
P2: Nowcasting (precipitation, wind, visibility, …)
P3: Data assimilation (atmosphere, surface, …)
P4: Numerical modeling (deterministic, EPS, regional, local, …)
P5: Postprocessing (add. Fields, Kalman, MOS, 1D-models, …)
P6: Verification (standard, conditional, …)
P7: Visualization (forecaster’s workbench, Web-based, …)
P8: Forecaster training (nowcasting, high-resolution NWP, EPS, …)
P9: Computer resources (supercomputer, server, PCs, …)
P10: Communication (World – Moscow, Moscow – Sochi, Sochi – Clusters)
P11: Funding (hardware, software, manpower, visits, …)
P12: Project coordination (within Russia, with external partners, …)

and stressed the need for further elaboration of more detailed planning with clear deliverables, responsible scientists and resource estimates for each of these areas separately for Minimum, Sufficient and Optimum solutions.

Project Management
The Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) will be established to oversee the project. It will be composed from the leaders of participating teams or their representatives (Environment Canada, CMA, COSMO, NCAR, NOAA, TIGGE-LAM/ARPA-SIMC, Univ.Helsinki/FMI/Vaisala, ZAMG, Roshydromet/HMC/Typhoon/CAO/IRAM, WWRP Working Groups) after their decision on the participation. All the participating teams are invited to identify their representatives in SSC.

Basing on experience of previous WWRP projects some participants proposed that besides of the SSC a Steering/Advisory Committee should be composed of representatives of WMO, NMHSs and other relevant bodies for strategic supervision and support of the project. In this respect, along with proposals on the composition of that Committee additional information on organizational set-up of the previous projects would be of use to learn more about the optimal separation of the areas of activity of these two structures.

Four Working Groups were proposed to deal with various components of the project more specifically:
WG1: Observations and nowcasting (including Verification)
WG Leader: Arcadi Koldaev / Valery Lukyanov / Yuriy Melnichuk (radars)
Members: Arcadi Koldaev, Yury Melnichuk, Yong Wang, Paul Joe, George Isaac, Roy Rasmussen, Dmitri Moisseev, Peter Romanov, Anatoly Muravev, IRAM representatives, Gdaly Rivin, Evgeny Vasilev, Pertti Nurmi.

WG2: NWP, ensembles and assimilation (including Verification)
WG Leader: Michail Tsyrulnikov / Gdaly Rivin
Members: Stephane Belair, Andrea Montani, Detlev Majewski, Gdaly Rivin, Yong Wang, Roy Rasmussen, Tiziana Paccagnella, Donghai Wang, Anatoly Muravev, Michail Tolstykh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi?

WG3: IT including graphical tools, formats, archiving and telecommunication
WG Leader: Dmitry Kiktev
Members: Alex Kolker, Vladimir Krupchatnikov, Sergei Loubov, Gennady Novikov, Alexander Smirnov

WG4: Products, training, end user assessment and social impacts
WG Leader: Valery Lukyanov / Evgeny Vasilev
Members: Vladimir Oganesian, George Isaac, Anatoly Muravev, Dmitry Moiseev, Pertti Nurmi, Galina Zaimskikh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi.

Besides of WG leaders from Russia international co-chairs will be identified for these WGs.

Project name
About ten options were proposed and considered by the participants. In the end the project was called «FROST-2014» that means «Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed».

Closing of the Meeting
Slobodan Nickovic informed the participants on behalf of the WMO that the Sochi project initiative was positively seen by the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC). For official recognition of «FROST-2014» a science plan of the project should be prepared and approved by the JSC.
Dmitry Kiktev on behalf of Roshydromet spoke words of gratitude to the participants for their interest and involvement into «Sochi-2014» project. He expressed his hope that the project would be mutually interesting both for participants and organizers.

Annex 1

List of participants

Surname	First name	Country	Affiliation	E-mail
Bazlova	Tatyana	Russia	IRAM	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Bekhmetyev	Anton	Russia	Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Belair	Stephane	Canada	EC, WWRP MRWG	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Bocharnikov	Nikolay	Russia	IRAM	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Fedorova	Valentina	Russia	Sochi Regional Office/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Isaac	George	Canada	EC	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Joe	Paul	Canada	EC, WWRP NRWG	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Kalyuzhnaya	Natalia	Russia	Rostov Regional Office/Roshydromet
Kiktev	Dmitry	Russia	Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Khomenok	Nikolay	Russia	Satellite Centre «Planeta»/Roshydromet
Krupchatnikov	Vladimir	Russia	Siberian Hydrometcentre/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Liu	Ying	China	CMA	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Lomarda	Nanette	WMO	WMO Secretariat	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Lukjanov	Valery	Russia	Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Majewski	Detlev	Germany	DWD	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Matveeva	Galina	Russia	Sochi Regional Office /Roshydromet
Melnichuk	Yuriy	Russia	CAO/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Moiseev	Dmitry	Finland	Helsinki University	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Montani	Andrea	Italy	ARPA-SIMC	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Muravev	Anatoly	Russia	Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Nickovic	Slobodan	WMO	WMO Secretariat	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Nurmi	Pertti	Finland	FMI	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Oganesian	Vladimir	Russia	Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Paccagnella	Tiziana	Italy	ARPA-SIMC	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Rivin	Gdaly	Russia	Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Rasmussen	Roy	USA	NCAR	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Romanov	Peter	USA	NOAA	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Rumyantsev	Oleg	Russia	Satellite Centre «Planeta»/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Sapuntsova	Catherine	Russia	Moscow University	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Sun	Jian	China	CMA	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tolstykh	Mikhail	Russia	Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tsyrulnikov	Mikhail	Russia	Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Vasilev	Evgeny	Russia	Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Volobueva	Olga	Russia	AviaMetTelecom/Roshydromet	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Wang	Donghai	China	CMA	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Wang	Yong	Austria	ZAMG	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Zaimskikh	Galina	Russia	Olympic Organizing Committee	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

Annex 2

First meeting of potential participants of WMO WWRP Project for «Sochi-2014» Olympic and Paralimpic Games (Sochi,1-3 March 2011)

ADOPTED AGENDA

Tuesday, March 1, 2011
7:30-8:30	Breakfast
8.30-9.00	Registration - «Mercury» conference-hall (5th floor)	«Mercury» conference-hall
09:00	Introductions by Participants, Approval of Agenda	Chair: Dmitry Kiktev
09:35	Welcome and Introductions from WMO. WWRP Perspective	Nanette Lomarda / Slobodan Nickovic
09:55	Welcome and Introductions from Roshydromet. Roshydromet plans for meteorological support of «Sochi-2014» Games	Dmitry Kiktev
10:25	Coffee-break
10.50	Roshydromet plans for upgrade of radar facilities in the region of Sochi	Yury Melnichuk
11:15	COSMO Activities for the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in Sochi, Russia, in February and March 2014	Detlev Majewski
11.35	Ensemble activity with COSMO model for Sochi-2014 RDP/FDP	Andrea Montani
12.55	Working Group on Nowcasting Research / Precipitation Processes in Complex Terrain and STEPS	Paul Joe
12.15-13.30	Lunch
13:30-15:10	Potential contributions to «Sochi-2014» project - Brief (15-20 min) presentations by participants:	Chair: Detlev Majewski
	Sochi-2014: Environment Canada's Plans together with Perspectives from the WWRP's Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research	Stephane Belair
	Initial Ideas and Visions for the Verification of Forecasts for the Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics	Pertti Nurmi
	Possible contribution of ZAMG to Sochi 2014	Yong Wang
	Environment Canada: Potential input to «Sochi-2014»	George Isaac
	CMA: Potential input to «Sochi-2014»	Donghai Wang / Liu Ying
15:10	Coffee-break
15:30:17.20	Potential contributions to «Sochi-2014» project - Brief (15-20 min) presentations by participants - continued	Chair: Stephane Belair
	CMA: Potential input to «Sochi-2014» - continued	Jian Sun
	Finland: Potential input of Helsinki University to «Sochi-2014»	Dmitri Moisseev
	Sochi-2014 project: TIGGE-LAM Vision and Plans	Tiziana Paccagnella
	Use of the Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making (WSDDM) Winter Nowcasting system during the Vancouver 2010 Olympics	Roy Rasmussen
	High-resolution snow analysis on the basis of satellite data	Peter Romanov
	Societal and Economic Impact Assessment Study - WWRP's Sydney 2000 FDP and Beijing 2008 FDP/RDP	Nanette Lomarda
	.......
17:20-18:00	Other Topics: Ideas on project goals (Throw-in) Project name (Throw-in) Logistics for 2 March
18.30	Reception at «Filibuster» restaurant (3rd floor)
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
07:30 – 8:30	Breakfast
09:00 – 18.00	Field excursion to the region of future Olympic mountain cluster (with Lunch Break)
18:30	Dinner
Thursday, March 3, 2011
7:30 – 8:30	Breakfast
09:00 – 10.40	Discussion on project concept (Review of previous presentations and discussions, Project Formulation Brainstorm, Articulating the Goals, Gaps)	Chair: George Isaac
10:40-11:00	Coffee-break
11.00	Discussion on project concept – continued
11.50	Project outputs and status (FDP or RDP/FDP). Links with other projects and programs
12:30-13:30	Lunch
13.30	Schedule for Implementation Installation of equipment? Preparation and testing of forecasting systems Trainings and Workshops Formal Plans (Science and Implementation?) Post Project Requirements	Chair: Paul Joe
15:30-16:00	Coffee-break
16.00	Project Management Steering Committee Working Groups	TBD
17:20	Project name
17.40	Logistics for Departures
17:45-18:00	Closing of the Meeting – WMO / Roshydromet
18:30	Dinner
Friday, March 4, 2011
7:30-8:30	Breakfast
	Departures
12:30-13:30	Lunch
	Departures