Annex 3
FROST-2014 Implementation Plan
|
№ |
Milestones |
Deliverables |
Executive |
Timing |
|
2011-2012 (Pre-trial Phase) |
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|
1.1 |
Preparation of concept paper |
Submission of concept paper to WWRP JSC |
D.Kiktev |
Nov-Dec 2011 |
|
1.2 |
Organization of training couse for Olympic forecasters |
Enhanced practical skills and theoretical background in the Olympic forecasters team |
V.Lukyanov |
Oct 2011 |
|
1.3 |
Participation of FROST-2014 representative in the 5th International Verification Methods Workshop |
Participation in the Workshop and Training course |
A.Muravev P.Nurmi, E.Atlaskin with support of the WMO |
Dec 1-7, 2011, BoM, Melbourne |
|
1.4 |
Organization of the Science Steering Committee meeting |
SSC meeting |
D.Kiktev |
Tentatively April 2012 |
|
1.5 |
Provide the participants with observational time series for the previous winters |
Time series at the project web-site |
D.Kiktev |
Nov-Dec 2011 |
|
1.6 |
Provide access to the regional AMSs data and specify information exchange procedures |
Authorised access to the available regional AMSs’ data for project participants |
D.Kiktev |
Nov-Dec 2011 |
|
1.7 |
Installation of Micro Rain Radar at Roza Khutor sport venue (MRR is being bought by the venue owner) |
Data flow to the project FTP-server or (for winter 2011/12) off-line archiving at local computer |
(to be specified) |
Winter 2011-2012 |
|
1. 8 |
Integration of COSMO-7km EPS SOCHMEL to the project (FDP-project component) |
COSMO-7km EPS SOCHMEL data flow to the project server |
A.Montani |
From Dec 2011-Mar 2012 |
|
1. 9 |
Integration of Deterministic COSMO-7km with data assimilation (DA) to the project (RDP project component) |
COSMO-7km with DA data flow to the project server |
D.Majewski |
Dec 2011-Mar 2012 |
|
1. 10 |
Integration of Determistic COSMO-7km without DA to the project |
COSMO-7km without DA data flow to the project server |
G.Rivin |
From Oct 2011 onwards |
|
1. 11 |
Evaluation and comparison of results from two identical COSMO-7km systems -with and without DA (RDP-component) |
Preliminary assessment of DA contribution to the forecast skill |
G.Rivin I.Rozinkina
|
Mar 2012 |
|
1. 12 |
Integration of deterministic COSMO 2.2 km runs (downscaled from 7 km) (FDP) |
COSMO-2km data flow to the project server |
G.Rivin |
From Oct 2011 onwards |
|
1. 13 |
First evaluation of the existing GLAMEPS system for the region of Sochi (FDP - component) |
GLAMEPS data flow to the project server |
I-L. Frogner |
Dec 2011 |
|
1. 14 |
Technical work in setting up Harmonie to run in ensemble mode and a first run with HarmonEPS finished, in hindcast mode (RDP-component) |
Set up HarmonEPS. Calculated series of HarmonEPS hindcasts. |
I-L. Frogner, T.Iversen |
Dec 2011 |
|
1. 15 |
First test of local calibrated GLAMEPS forecasts (RDP) |
First test results for local calibrated GLAMEPS forecasts |
I-L. Frogner, T.Iversen |
Dec 2011 |
|
1. 16 |
First version of GEM-LAM at 1km grid spacingwill be run (might not be real-time at that stage). It will not include yet the initial conditions from the external high-resolution land surface system (FDP) |
GEM-LAM at 1km grid spacing initialized from a 10 or 15-km regional GEM with initial conditions from 4DVAR. At that stage without external high-resolution land surface system. |
S.Belair J.Milbrandt |
Dec 2011 |
|
1. 17 |
Results of experiments with downscalling for COSMO-RU02 |
Prelimunary results with statistical adaptation correction scheme for 2012 winter for T2m for at sport venues |
I.Rozinkina
|
April 2012 |
|
1. 18 |
Experiments with snow satellite analysis for COSMO-RU system (FDP, not real time at that stage) |
Preliminary results of COSMO-RU runs with snow satellite analysis |
I.Rozinkina P.Romanov
|
April 2012
|
|
1. 19 |
Integration of forecast/nowcast data flows, archiving of forecasts/nowcasts and visualization of their results on the project web-site |
Forecasts/Nowcasts of participating systems on the project web-site. Availability of results to Olympic forecasters via web-interface. Archiving of forecasts on the project server. |
D.Kiktev |
Winter 2011-2012 (Depending on the time of availability of forecasts) |
|
1. 20 |
Real-time access to TIGGE forecasts |
Real-time access to TIGGE forecasts (with possibility to request new specific products) |
T. Paccagnella |
To be specified |
|
1. 21 |
Meteorological support of sport test events with use of forecast information from the project participants |
Preliminary practical acquaintance of Olympic forecasters with new nowcasting/forecasting products |
V.Lukyanov |
Jan-Mar 2012 |
|
1. 22 |
Survey among Olympic forecasters (as a part of impact assessment studies) (FDP) |
«Snapshot» of the current understanding and skill levels, needs and impressions |
V.Oganesian |
October-March 2011-2012 |
|
1. 23 |
Synoptic evaluation of available FROST-2014 forecasts/nowcasts for pre-trial winter (FDP?) |
Preliminary synoptic assessments of available FROST-2014 forecasts |
T.Dmitrieva, V.Fedorova, E.Vasilev |
April 2012 |
|
1. 24 |
Objective evaluation of Pre-trial forecasting/nowcasting results (RDP) |
First evaluation results and assessments of practical predictability for Sochi region |
A.Muravev, P.Nurmi, E.Atlaskin
|
Spring 2012 |
|
1. 25 |
Assessment of organizational feasibility to lend additional observational equipment from the project participants |
Possible correction (enhancement) of the observational setup |
V.Lukyanov D.Kiktev |
Spring 2012 |
|
2012-2013 (Trial Period) |
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|
2.1 |
Discussion and decision on Akhun radar data format |
Coordinated decision on Akhun radar data format |
Yu.Melnichuk, D.Moisseev, D.Majewski, P.Joe, M.Tsyrulnikov G.Rivin |
Jul 2012 |
|
2.2 |
Traning course for Olympic forecasters. Might be combined with SSC meeting (2.2) - to be decided |
Enhanced practical skills and theoretical background in the team of Olympic forecasters. Might be combined with SSC meeting (2.2) with master-class for Olympic forecasters |
V.Lukyanov
|
Oct-Nov 2012 |
|
2.3 |
Organization of the Science Steering Committee meeting. Might be combined with training for forecasters (2.1) - to be decided. |
SSC meeting Might be combined with Traning course for Olympic forecasters (2.1) |
D.Kiktev |
To be decided. Options: Spring 2012 or Oct-Nov 2012 (timed to Forecasters Training) |
|
2.4 |
Integration of Akhun Doppler Radar into the project data sources |
Data flow from the Akhun Doppler radar to the project data server |
Yu.Melnichuk
|
Nov 2012 |
|
2.5 |
Integration of wind and temperature profilers into the project data sources |
Data flow from wind and temperature profilers to the project data server |
A.Koldaev |
Nov 2012 |
|
2.6 |
Integration of new Roshydromet’s MRR into the project data sources (it might be the second MRR in the region) |
Data flow from the Roshydromet’s MRR to the project data server |
A.Koldaev |
Nov 2012 |
|
2.7 |
Integration of microwave radiometer into the project data sources |
Data flow from the microwave radiometer to the project data server |
A.Koldaev |
Nov 2012 |
|
2.8 |
Radar precipitation data analysis on regular grid with 2 km resolution |
Radar precipitation data analysis available on the project data server |
Y.Melnichuk D.Moisseev - to be confirmed |
Dec 2012
|
|
2.9 |
Integration of additional AMSs on the towers of mobile communication into the project data sources |
Data from additional AMSs on the project server |
D.Kiktev |
As new AMSs are getting available |
|
2. 10 |
Installation of extra-equipment from the participants - COLDEX instruments etc ? To be specified. Depends on 1.25. RDP? |
To be specified |
P.Joe,G.Isaac R.Rasmussen |
To be specified. Depends on 1.25 |
|
2. 11 |
Integration of road AMSs into the project data sources (RDP) |
Road stations data flow to the project server |
N.Bocharnikov,T.Bazlova |
From Nov 2012 |
|
2. 12 |
Road state nowcasting for regional highways (RDP) |
MeteoTrassa data flow to the project server |
N.Bocharnikov,T.Bazlova |
From Nov 2012 |
|
2. 13 |
Road state nowcasting for regional highways (RDP) |
Road state nowcasting data flow tot he project server –to be confirmed |
P.Nurmi,E.Atlaskin |
To be specified. |
|
2. 14 |
Integration of CARDS, ABOM, INTW and STEPS+ nowcasting systems to the project (FDP - component) |
CARDS, ABOM, INTW and STEPS+ data flow to the project server |
P.Joe, G.Isaac |
From Nov 2012 |
|
2. 15 |
Integration of WSDDM nowcasting system to the project (FDP?– to be specified) |
WSDDM data flow to the project server |
R.Rasmussen |
From Nov 2012 |
|
2. 16 |
Integration of MeteoExpert nowcasting system to the project (FDP – component) |
MeteoExpert data flow to the project server |
N.Bocharnikov / T.Bazlova |
From Nov 2012 |
|
2.17 |
Integration of INCA |
INCA fields on 1km grid |
A. Kann, C. Gruber, B. Bica |
1 Jan 2013, as soon as all input data are available |
|
2. 18 |
GEM-LAM system at 1km grid spacing ready to run in real time with initial conditions from the external land surface system. (FDP) |
GEM-LAM at 1km grid spacing initialized from a regional GEM with initial conditions from 4DVAR and external high-resolution land surface system. |
S.Belair J.Milbrandt |
1 Nov 2012 |
|
2. 19 |
First version of GEM-LAM at 250-500m grid spacing will be run (not necessarily in near real time). The land surface initial conditions (snow, surface temperatures, soil moisture) will be provided by an external land surface system. (RDP) |
GEM-LAM at 250-500m grid spacing, with upper-air driven and initialized by the GEM-LAM 1km above, and with the surface initialized by the external land surface system at 250-m grid spacing. |
S.Belair J.Milbrandt |
1 Nov 2012 |
|
2. 20 |
Prepare and verify products specific to Sochi over winter 2011/2012. Account for extra observations (if feasible) (FDP) |
GLAMEPS data flow to the project server. Verification results for winter 2011/2012. |
I-L. Frogner |
1 Nov 2012 |
|
2. 21 |
Preparing for boundary data started. Start testing HarmonEPS on winter 2011/2012 if boundary data is available, in hindcast mode. Preparation for a pre-operational system for the Sochi area. Experimental studies started tentatively involving: resolution impact studies, multi-model combination, RUC, Hybrid EPS-DA, assimilation/evaluation of snow cover. (RDP) |
Assessment of HarmonEPS performance in hindcast mode |
I-L. Frogner, T.Iversen |
1 Nov 2012 |
|
2. 22 |
Extended test of local calibrated GLAMEPS forecasts with more sites and parameters including validation (RDP) |
Testing results for local calibrated GLAMEPS forecasts |
I-L. Frogner, T.Iversen |
1 Nov 2012 |
|
2. 23 |
Experiments with deterministic COSMO model with resolution about 1 km (RDP) |
Experimental deterministic high-resolution COSMO runs at the project server |
G.Rivin |
Winter 2012-2013 |
|
2. 24 |
Implementation of snow satellite analysis into COSMO-RU02 in operational mode (FDP) |
Deterministic COSMO-RU02 runs with snow satellite analysis |
G.Rivin I.Rozinkina |
1 Jan 2013 |
|
2. 25 |
Development of operational MOS-postprocessing for the region of mountain cluster |
Operational MOS postprocessing |
P.Vasilev |
1 Dec 2012 |
|
2. 26 |
Conversion of the global 3D-Var to the limited area (RDP) |
Results of experimental COSMO runs with 3D-Var DA |
M.Tsyrulnikov |
Winter 2012-2013 |
|
2. 27 |
Implementation of Real-Time Forecast Verification (RTFV) system |
Results of RTFV available for forecasters and project participants via web |
A.Muravev |
From Dec 2012 |
|
2. 28 |
System Integration and Delivery System with timely access to data and timely product issue |
Forecast tables as a first guess |
D.Kiktev |
Dec 2012 |
|
2. 29 |
Synoptic evaluation of available FROST-2014 forecasts/nowcasts for winter 2012/2013 (FDP) |
Synoptic assessments of available FROST-2014 forecasts |
T.Dmitrieva, V.Fedorova, E.Vasilev |
April 2013 |
|
2. 30 |
Objective evaluation of winter 2012/2013 nowcasts and forecasts using non-standard virification methods |
Results of objective forecast evaluation using off-line new verification approaches |
A.Muravev, P.Nurmi, E.Atlaskin |
Apr 2013 |
|
2. 31 |
Meteorological support of sport test events with use of forecast information from the project participants |
Preliminary practical acquaintance of Olympic forecasters with new nowcasting/forecasting products |
V.Lukyanov |
Jan-Mar 2013 |
|
2. 32 |
Survey among Olympic forecasters and managers (as a part of impact assessment studies) (FDP) |
«Snapshot» of the current understanding and skill levels, needs and impressions |
V.Oganesian |
Oct-Mar 2012/2013 |
|
2. 33 |
Meteorological support of sport test events with use of forecast information from the project participants |
Practical experience of Olympic forecasters with new nowcasting/forecasting products |
V.Lukyanov |
Jan-Mar 2013 |
|
2. 34 |
System Integration and Delivery System with timely access to data and timely product issue |
Forecast tables as a first guess |
D.Kiktev |
Dec 2012 |
|
2.35 |
Technical work to set up ALADIN-LAEF post-processing domain (Ensemble FDP-component) |
Implementation of extra post-processing of operational ALADIN-LAEF forecasts |
F.Weidle |
Summer 2012 |
|
2.36 |
First evaluation of ALADIN-LAEF system for the region of Sochi (FDP - component) |
ALADIN-LAEF data flow to the project server |
F.Weidle |
Summer/autumn 2012 |
|
2013-2014 (Pre-Olympic, Olympic and Post-Olympic period) |
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|
3.1 |
Final traning course for Olympic forecasters. Might be combined with SSC meeting (3.2) - to be decided |
Enhanced practical skills and theoretical background in the team of Olympic forecasters. Might be combined with SSC meeting (3.2) and training for Olympic forecasters |
V.Lukyanov
|
Oct-Nov 2012 |
|
3.2 |
Organization of the Science Steering Committee meeting. Might be combined with training for Olympic forecasters (3.1)-to be decided. |
SSC meeting Might be combined with training for Olympic forecasters (3.1) |
D.Kiktev |
To be decided. Options: Spring 2013 or Oct-Nov 2013 (timed to Final Training) |
|
3.3 |
Integration of additional measurements (GPM, Ka Band etc.) into the project data sources – RDP. To be specified. Depends on 1.25 |
To be specified |
P.Joe, G.Isaac D.Moisseev |
To be specified. Depends on 1.25 |
|
3.4 |
Implementation of regional 3D-Var DA with COSMO-RU in operational mode (RDP) |
Deterministic COSMO-RU runs with 3D-Var DA |
M.Tsyrulnikov |
Oct 2013 |
|
3.5 |
Possible slight changes to the GEM-LAM system at 1km grid spacing (FDP) |
Possible slight changes to the GEM-LAM system at 1km grid spacing |
S.Belair J.Milbrandt |
1 Dec 2013 |
|
3.6 |
Final version of GEM-LAM at 250-500m grid spacing will be integrated, with some modifications / improvements from the previous year (RDP) |
Final version of GEM-LAM at 250-500m grid spacing |
S.Belair J.Milbrandt |
1 Dec 2013 |
|
3.7 |
GLAMEPS: Take into account extra observations in real time in the data-assimilation and, if feasible, the ensemble generation (FDP) |
GLAMEPS real-time FDP runs with possible assimilation of regional observations |
I-L.Frogner |
1 Dec 2013 |
|
3.8 |
Feasibility studies for HarmonEPS in test-operational mode. High-resolution verification. (RDP) |
HarmonEPS in test-operational mode. |
I-L.Frogner, T.Iversen |
1 Dec 2013 |
|
3.9 |
Quasi-operational probabilistic forecasts for several observational sites and parameters, possibly with hourly updates (RDP). |
Quasi-operational calibrated EPS forecasts for several observation sites |
I-L.Frogner, T.Iversen |
1 Dec 2013 |
|
3.10 |
Operational INCA analysis and nowcasting for Olympic domain |
INCA deliverables (provided that input data are available in sufficient quantity and quality) |
A. Kann, C. Gruber, B. Bica |
Winter 2013/2014 |
|
3. 11 |
Deterministic COSMO model runs with resolution about 1 km (RDP) |
Results of deterministic high-resolution COSMO runs at the project server |
G.Rivin |
Winter 2013/2014 |
|
3. 12 |
Experiments with COSMO-EPS 2.2.km Tecnology (RDP) |
Experimental ensemble high-resolution COSMO-RU runs at the project server |
G.Rivin E.Astakhova A.Montani
|
1 Dec 2013 |
|
3. 13 |
Meteorological support of Olympics and Formal FDP |
Operational practical use and demonstration of systems participating in the FDP project component |
D.Kiktev |
Feb-Mar 2014 |
|
3. 14 |
Synoptic evaluation of available FROST-2014 forecasts/nowcasts for winter 2013/2014 (FDP) |
Synoptic assessments of FROST-2014 nowcasts and forecasts |
T.Dmitrieva, V.Fedorova, E.Vasilev |
Autumn 2014 |
|
3. 15 |
Evaluation and intercomparison of nowcast/forecast results for the formal FDP period (FDP) |
Evaluation results of FDP |
A.Muravev P.Nurmi E.Atlaskin |
Autumn 2014 |
|
3. 16 |
Diagnostic non-standard verification of project nowcasts/forecasts (RDP) |
Diagnostic verifications and assessments of practical predictability for the period of FROST-2014 activity |
A.Muravev P.Nurmi E.Atlaskin and other project participants
|
Autumn 2014 |
|
3. 17 |
Survey among the Olympic forecasters and managers. (FDP) |
«Snapshot» of the current understanding and skill levels, needs and impressions. |
V.Oganesian
|
Oct 2013-Mar 2014 |
|
3. 18 |
General impact assessment for the previous period targeting on Olympic forecasters and managers (FDP) |
General impact assessment for the period of project activity |
V.Oganesian, SERA representative |
Autumn 2014 |
|
3. 19 |
Organization of the Science Steering Committee meeting. |
SSC meeting |
D.Kiktev |
Spring 2014 |
|
3. 20 |
Organization of the Final Seminar. Discussion on publication plan |
Final seminar. Publication plan. |
D.Kiktev |
To be decided |
|
3. 21 |
Preparation of Report to WWRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) |
Project Report submitted to JSC |
D.Kiktev |
To be specified |
|
3. 22 |
Support FROST-2014 http/ftp-server for further retrospective studies (e.g. in the context of data assimilation) |
Internet access to the FROST-2014 data server for research community |
D.Kiktev |
While interest exists |
|
3. 23 |
Journal publications |
|
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